US Mortgage Risk Premia has Bottomed
Mortgage risk premia has always bottomed between 3 months to 1 year before equity markets have bottomed, this suggests that US equity markets are bottoming right now or might bottom soon.
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Indian Markets Remain Fairly Valued
Indian markets remain fairly valued as measured against inflation. The elevated levels of interest rates have not weighed on economic activity yet but are likely to show an impact in the second half of the year.
Time to Own Indian Bonds
Inverse Bond Yields & Inflation has a very clear relationship. If one believes inflation is destined to go down within a year's time, owning bonds certainly seems like an ideal choice.
Markets Bottom When PMI Bottom
Equity markets tend to bottom once coincident indicators such as the US ISM PMI Index bottom. Until that is clearly visible limiting equity exposure remains an ideal choice. For now, the drop in PMI is expected to translate into a further drop in Real GDP growth, which is also likely to impact earnings.
Chinese Imports Determine Oil Prices
China being a factory for the world, its raw material imports have a direct effect on commodity prices. Chinese monthly import drives changes in oil prices.
India Credit Impulse Impacts USD-INR Exchange Rates
A country’s credit impulse is a strong influencer of business cycles and thus directly translates into economic activity and to a certain degree inflation. For countries that have sizable economies
Milton Friedman’s Favorite Plot
Milton Friedman argued that inflation is entirely monetary in nature and the close relationship between CPI & M2/GDP validates this notion. Ideally, the plot of both these terms should trend together in tandem and with the exact same values. Distortions arise due to the incorrect magnitude & delayed actions of central banks that respond to changing economic conditions.
Money Supply Changes Lag Rates by 6 Months
One of the ways we estimate M1 (money supply) at Airtham is to look at changes in the rate environment of an economy. Using 3-Month bond yields as a proxy for near-term policy rates helps in accurately forecasting M1.
US Manufacturing Activity Slows
Philly Fed General Activity Manufacturing Diffusion Index unexpectedly came lower. The present level is akin to what was witnessed during every prior recession since the 1970s. If the data is to be believed, either this time is different or we are still headed for a recession.
Indian Market Liquidity vs Volatility
Indian equity markets witnessed lower levels of liquidity for the past year. But what is more interesting is that despite lower liquidity, market volatility did not rise.